A new study has been released by the NHBC foundation in the UK, Futurology: The new home in 2050 that has a lot of interesting ideas. Prepared by Studio Partington, a design practice in London, it “provides an interesting insight into some of the trends we are likely to see 30 years or more into the future.”

Urban Homes

© Futurology: the new home in 2050

For urban living, the designers foresee more of what has become known as “missing middle” housing in North America: “Homes will be arranged vertically on smaller footprints to increase density and make the best use of limited land.” They see it being connected to district heating and cooling systems, and without parking because “car ownership will be lower with more journeys taken on public transport, by foot and bicycle, or through the use of on-demand and ride-sharing services.”

Rural and Suburban Homes

For rural and suburban living, they suggest that “the traditional home arrangement will remain largely unchanged due to the greater availability of land, allowing homes to adapt and expand as families grow and working styles evolve.”

Adaptations for Multi-generational Living

There are many things to love about their ideas for flexible townhomes that can adapt and change to accommodate multi-generational living. They suggest a doubling of traditional suburban densities (which is already happening as developers pack bigger houses onto smaller lots).

There are aspects to the designs that surprise me. Stairs are shown with winders, occasionally even double winders. These are far more dangerous than straight stairs and make it difficult to install chair lifts, which are a lot cheaper than elevator lifts.

They also show ground source heat pumps in the country and district heating in the city, even as they discuss how homes will be highly energy efficient. However I thought that there was pretty much a consensus that if you build a really well insulated house, (say, to Passive House standards, which by 2050 I would have thought would be code) then an expensive ground-source heat pump system becomes superfluous.

There are some interesting and sometimes counter-intuitive planning ideas, like putting all services on the exterior walls so that the interior non-load bearing walls can be changed as required. Do people do that very often? Don’t electrical outlets have to be on every wall? Or will we need electric outlets at all in 2050? Perhaps not.

Because most British homes have hot water radiators, they plan an integrated system of thermal storage of hot water.

Again, I wonder if this is overcomplicating things, but then I keep thinking we should be building dumb homes that have lots of insulation instead of complex storage systems. However, there is little argument that we should be living in an all-electric future powered by renewables. There is also a consensus that there will be more off-site construction.

There is much to admire in this report: the stressing of flexibility, of multigenerational living, and the recognition of societal changes with a huge increase in the numbers of both older people and younger people who can’t afford to leave home. They recognize the need for the increasing of density, the replacement of the private car with so many alternatives. The designing for adaptability is something we have been talking about a lot recently, the idea of Open Building, where all the building components are accessible and replaceable. The study authors write:

© Smithson House of the Future

As Yogi Berra noted, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” British architects like Alison Smithson tried it in 1956 and our houses don’t look much like they predicted, and neither does the clothing. While reading “Futurology: the New Home in 2050,” I thought that it didn’t go far enough, that it was all too much like the housing of today, but 2050 is only 32 years away and if you think of how much housing has changed since 32 years ago, 1986, you realize that this is a very slow-moving industry. So perhaps it makes sense that they did not go all Smithson and get too wild and crazy.

Download your own copy from the NHBC Foundation.