Our bet: no.

The Montreal Protocol was signed by President Reagan thirty years ago to get rid of ozone-destroying chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that are used as refrigerants. It is one of the world’s great environmental success stories, and has been responsible for a dramatic shrinking of the “ozone hole”. Even with some backsliding, it continues to make a difference.

In 2016 most countries, including the USA under President Obama, agreed to the Kilgali Amendment that would phase out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which were adopted to replace CFCs but still cause problems as they are serious greenhouse gases. Under the amendment, new equipment would use Hydrofluoroolefin or HFOs as a refrigerant; they have far less impact on the atmosphere.

Then a new president got elected in 2016 who seems intent on reversing every single thing the last president did, including the Kilgali amendment, which he has to send to the Senate for ratification.

This is a problem for the entire industry; they have “invested hundreds of billions of dollars to innovate and commercialize next generation products, in anticipation of this trend and new market demands.” The industry has formed the Alliance for responsible atmospheric policy to promote the amendment; members include American manufacturers and business groups include the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, and Business Roundtable. They write:

The industry notes that while the new equipment will cost a bit more, it has lower leak rates and the energy savings will pay for themselves in two to five years.

CEI/Screen capture

Alas, they are up against our longtime arch-villain, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, first seen on TreeHugger for their hilarious campaign CO2: We call it life! Their director, Myron Ebell, led the EPA transition team for Trump. According to Scientific American, “Ebell’s views appear to square with Trump’s when it comes to EPA’s agenda.” He has rounded up the usual suspects (including Agender Tom DeWeese!) to fight the Kilgali Amendment; the objection is that HFC’s major problem is that they have a high global warming potential and since global warming doesn’t exist, why bother?

They say that consumers will pay more because the replacement refrigerants cost more. And think of the churches and schools!

And think of the poor!

It seems like only yesterday we were saying on TreeHugger that replacing refrigerants was one of three things that had to be done so that all those new air conditioners wouldn’t fry the planet. If Trump doesn’t ratify Kilgali that will get a whole lot harder. And unfortunately, with buddies like Myron Ebell and the CEI, I suspect that we can all predict the outcome here.

Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy/Screen capture